儿童术后谵妄风险预测模型的范围综述
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女,硕士在读,护师

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湖北省自然科学基金项目(2022CFB278)


Risk prediction model for postoperative delirium in children:a scoping review
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    目的 系统梳理儿童术后谵妄风险预测模型的构建方法、预测因子及性能,为预测模型改进及临床实践提供参考。方法 遵循范围综述框架,检索中国知网、万方数据知识服务平台、中国生物医学文献数据库、维普网、PubMed、Embase、Web of Science、Cochrane Library;检索时限为建库至2025年3月。纳入儿童术后谵妄预测模型相关文献,提取数据并汇总分析。结果 共纳入9篇文献,儿童术后谵妄发生率为11.10%~58.68%。建模方法包括多因素logistic回归分析及机器学习。年龄、手术类型及疼痛程度是儿童术后谵妄风险的主要预测因子。9篇文献构建的预测模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.767~0.960,其中5项模型报告了Hosmer-Lemeshow检验结果,均P>0.05。结论 当前儿童术后谵妄风险预测模型研究尚处于初步探索阶段,方法学质量有待提升。未来应通过多样化模型构建及充分模型验证建立更科学、精准、实用的预测模型,以更好地辅助临床决策,提高儿童护理服务质量。

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    Objective To systematically review the construction methods, predictive factors, and performance of postoperative delirium risk prediction models in children, to provide references for the improvement of prediction modelsand clinical practice. Methods Following a scoping review framework, databases including CNKI, Wanfang Data, SinoMed, VIP, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library were searched from the inception to March 2025. Studies reporting predictive models for postoperative delirium in children were included,data were extracted and synthesized. Results Nine studies were included, reported postoperative delirium incidence ranging from 11.10% to 58.68%. Modeling methods comprised multivariate logistic regression analysis and machine learning. Age, surgical type, and pain intensity were the primary predictors of postoperative delirium risk in children. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the predictive models developed in the 9 studies ranged from 0.767 to 0.960. Among these, 5 models reported Hosmer-Lemeshow test results, all P>0.05. Conclusion Current research on postoperative delirium risk prediction models in children remains in an exploratory phase, with room for improvement in methodological quality. Future efforts should focus on developing more scientific, precise, and practical prediction models through diverse modeling approaches and rigorous validation to better support clinical decision-making and enhance pediatric nursing care quality.

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鲁睿宁,程晶,李虹霖.儿童术后谵妄风险预测模型的范围综述[J].护理学杂志,2025,40(20):120-124

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-05
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-24