基于机器学习的糖尿病足发病风险预测模型构建
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女,硕士,护士

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上海市浦东新区卫生系统领先人才培养计划(PWRl2020-04);上海市浦东新区卫生系统重点学科建设基金资助项目(PWZxk2022-14)


Construction of machine learning-based prediction models for diabetic foot risk in diabetes patients
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    目的 采用5种机器学习算法构建2型糖尿病患者糖尿病足发病风险预测模型,筛选最优预测模型,为早期精准识别糖尿病足高危人群提供依据。方法 通过文献回顾和专家咨询拟定糖尿病足发病风险因素调查表。2018年3月至2021年10月选取住院且接受随访管理的984例2型糖尿病患者作为研究对象,收集患者资料,采用Lasso回归法筛选预测变量,按8∶2的比例随机划分训练集787例和验证集197例。训练集采用logistic回归、决策树、支持向量机、随机森林和极端梯度提升构建模型,验证集进行内部验证,评估模型的预测性能。综合评估ROC曲线下面积和F1分数确定最优模型。基于最优模型构建并验证2型糖尿病患者糖尿病足发病风险评分表。结果 有217例(22.05%)2型糖尿病患者发生糖尿病足。Lasso回归筛选出8个预测变量,包括年龄、总胆固醇、吸烟、针刺痛觉、足部皮肤湿冷、足部畸形、趾甲畸形和鞋袜不适。结果显示随机森林ROC曲线下面积为0.787,准确率为0.838,精确率为0.591,灵敏度为0.361,特异度为0.944,F1分数为0.448,较其他模型有较好的预测性能。基于随机森林模型构建的2型糖尿病患者糖尿病足发病风险评分表得分为0~101分,最佳截断值为43分,ROC曲线下面积为0.745。结论 基于随机森林算法构建的模型整体预测性能最优,基于此模型构建的2型糖尿病患者糖尿病足发病风险评分表能够用于糖尿病足高风险人群的早期筛查。

    Abstract:

    Objective To construct predictive models for the onset of diabetic foot in type 2 diabetes patients using five machine lear-ning algorithms, to select the optimal performing model, and to provide evidence for healthcare workers to early and accurately identify high-risk individuals for diabetic foot.Methods Through literature review and expert consultation, a list of risk factors for diabetic foot ulcer was formulated to create a questionnaire.A total of 984 patients with type 2 diabetes who were admitted from March 2018 to October 2021 and received follow-up management were selected.Data collection was conducted, and the predictive variables were screened using the Lasso regression method.The patients were randomly divided into a training set of 787 and a validation set of 197 patients in a ratio of 8∶2.The training set used logistic regression, decision trees, support vector machines, random forests, and extreme gradient boosting to build models, and the validation set was internally validated.The optimal model was determined based on a comprehensive evaluation of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and F1 score.A risk scoring table for diabetic foot ulcer in type 2 diabetes patients was constructed and validated based on the optimal model.Results The incidence rate of diabetic foot ulcers in the training set stood at 22.05%(217 cases).Lasso regression identified 8 predictors, including age, total cholesterol, smoking, tingling pain, cold and wet skin on the foot, foot deformity, toenail deformity, and footwear discomfort.The results showed that the AUC of the random forest model was 0.787, the accuracy was 0.838, the precision was 0.591, the sensitivity was 0.361, the specificity was 0.944, and the F1 score was 0.448, indicating better predictive performance than other models.The diabetic foot ulcer risk scoring table based on the random forest model had a score range of 0 to 101 points, with the optimal cut-off value of 43 points, and the AUC was 0.745.Conclusion The model built based on the random forest algorithm has the best overall prediction performance, and the diabetic foot disease risk scoring table based on this mo-del can be used for early screening of high-risk patients with diabetic foot disease.

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楼佳烨,王艳梅,潘欣欣,张志英,王红岩.基于机器学习的糖尿病足发病风险预测模型构建[J].护理学杂志,2025,(9):26-30

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-06
  • 最后修改日期:2025-02-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-05