基于Meta分析构建ICU获得性衰弱风险预测模型
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

女,硕士,护士

通讯作者:

基金项目:

中华护理学会研究基金项目(ZHKY201611);湖北省卫生健康委2021-2022年度面上项目(WJ2021M081);华中科技大学同济医学院附属协和医院药技护专项基金(F016.02004.20001.057)


Construction of a risk prediction model for ICU acquired weakness-based on Meta-analysis
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    目的 构建并验证ICU获得性衰弱风险预测模型,为早期筛查ICU获得性衰弱危险人群提供有效工具。 方法 Meta分析ICU获得性衰弱的危险因素,以各危险因素的综合危险度的自然对数为模型的β系数,以某时段ICU获得性衰弱发病率与未发病率比值的自然对数为模型的α系数,建立预测模型。收集137例ICU患者资料,分析模型的预测性能。 结果 ICU获得性衰弱预测模型为logit(P)=-0.781+0.039年龄+0.077APACHE+0.940休克+0.122机械通气时长+0.971脓毒血症+0.756神经肌肉阻滞剂+1.311血管活性药物+1.308皮质类固醇+0.747性别+0.626高血糖+1.973肾脏替代治疗;模型ROC曲线下面积为0.752,95%CI(0.672,0.833),概率P函数的临界值为0.998,敏感度为0.930,特异度为0.489。 结论 基于Meta分析建立的ICU获得性衰弱风险预测模型可作为早期预测ICU获得性衰弱危险人群的工具。

    Abstract:

    Objective To construct and validate an ICU acquired weakness (ICUAW) risk prediction model, and to provide an effective tool for early screening of ICUAW-risk population. Methods Meta-analysis was conducted to calculate the risk factors of ICUAW, the natural logarithm of the comprehensive risk of each risk factor was taken as the β coefficient, and the natural logarithm of the ratio of ICUAW incidence rate to non-incidence rate during a certain period was taken as the α coefficient to construct a risk prediction model of ICUAW.Then the data of 137 ICU patients were collected to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Results The model of ICUAW was logit(P)=-0.781+0.039age+0.077APACHE+0.940shock+0.122duration of mechanical ventilation+0.971sepsis+0.756neuromuscular blocker+1.311vasoactive drugs+1.308corticosteroids+0.747gender+0.626 hyperglycemia+1.973renal replacement therapy.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.752, 95%CI was (0.672,0.833).The cut-off value of probability function (P) was 0.998, the sensitivity was 0.930, and specificity was 0.489. Conclusion The ICUAW risk prediction model based on Meta-analysis can be used as a tool for early prediction of ICUAW risk population.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

刘杨,罗健,刘苗,周兴婷,丁韫晗,胡梦阳,孟莹莹.基于Meta分析构建ICU获得性衰弱风险预测模型[J].护理学杂志,2022,37(7):29-33

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-02-10
  • 最后修改日期:2022-03-15
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-08-28