全身麻醉成人患者术后中重度口渴风险预测模型的构建及验证
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女,硕士在读,主管护师

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Construction and validation of prediction model for moderate-to-severe postoperative thirst in adult patients undergoing general anesthesia
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    目的 探讨全身麻醉成人患者术后口渴程度的发生现况,分析影响术后中重度口渴的因素并构建列线图预测模型,为制订术后口渴的分级管理策略提供参考。方法 连续选取2024年1-9月进行择期全身麻醉手术并转入麻醉恢复室的成人患者为研究对象,其中建模组1 326例和验证组232例。采用Riker镇静-躁动评分量表、数字评定量表和自制临床资料收集表收集术后口渴相关资料。Lasso回归筛选重要预测变量,建立logistic回归预测模型并构建列线图。结果 建模组中重度口渴发生率53.4%,验证组中重度口渴发生率59.9%。Lasso回归分析筛选出回归系数不为零的9个影响因素(手术时间、年龄、实施加速康复外科、ASA分级、术中输液量、插管方式、使用阿托品、使用艾司洛尔、术中出血量),基于该9项因素建立logistic回归预测模型,建模组和验证组AUC值分别为0.805和0.743。结论 术后成人患者中重度口渴发生率较高,所构建的术后中重度口渴列线图预测模型可为医护人员提供较为可靠的评估工具。

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    Objective To investigate the prevalence of postoperative thirst in adult patients undergoing general anesthesia, analyze the factors influencing moderate-to-severe postoperative thirst, to develop a nomogram, and to provide a reference for the formulation of graded management strategies for postoperative thirst.Methods This study continuously selected adult patients who underwent elective surgeries under general anesthesia from January to September 2024.A total of 1,326 patients were included in the modeling group, and 232 patients in the validation group.Postoperative thirst-related data were collected using the Riker Sedation-Agitation Scale, the Numeric Rating Scale, and a self-designed clinical data collection form.Important predictive variables were identified using Lasso regression, and a logistic regression prediction model was established along with the nomogram.Results The incidence rate of moderate-to-severe thirst in the modeling group was 53.4% versus 59.9% in the validation group.Lasso regression analysis identified nine influencing factors with non-zero regression coefficients [surgery duration, age, implementation of Enhanced Reco-very After Surgery (ERAS), ASA classification, intraoperative fluid volume, intubation method, atropine, esmolol, and intrao-perative blood loss].A logistic regression prediction model was established based on these nine factors, with AUC values of 0.805 for the modeling group and 0.743 for the validation group.Conclusion The incidence of moderate-to-severe thirst in postoperative adult patients is relatively high.The developed nomogram for predicting moderate-to-severe postoperative thirst provides a reliable assessment tool for healthcare professionals.

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甘皓月,黄华平,何梅,陶丹,程敏,杜鹃,黄雪梅,伍苑晨.全身麻醉成人患者术后中重度口渴风险预测模型的构建及验证[J].护理学杂志,2025,(9):49-54

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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-05
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-01
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-05