不同机器学习算法的社区老年人认知衰弱风险预测模型比较
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男,硕士,护士

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昆山市级科技专项立项项目(KS2205);苏州市医学重点扶持学科建设(SZFCXK202106)


Comparison of cognitive frailty risk prediction models for community older adults based on machine learning algorithms
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    摘要:

    目的 基于不同机器学习算法构建社区老年人认知衰弱风险预测模型,优选最佳模型,为防范社区老年人认知衰弱提供适宜评估工具。 方法 选取苏州市3个社区卫生服务中心体检的1 105名老年人,随机分为训练集773人和验证集332人。基于训练集单因素logistic回归分析结果,使用logistic回归、伯努利朴素贝叶斯、随机森林、极端梯度提升、K邻近算法和支持向量机6种机器学习算法构建6种认知衰弱风险预测模型,并在验证集中进行评价和比较。基于最优算法构建社区老年人认知衰弱评分表,并对评分表进行验证。 结果 训练集单因素logistic回归分析共识别出13个危险因素,6种模型ROC曲线下面积0.824~0.889,敏感度0.721~0.849,特异度0.700~0.837,约登指数0.498~0.674;随机森林模型为最佳模型,基于此模型构建的老年人认知衰弱评分表得分范围0~180分,内、外部验证ROC曲线下面积为0.858、0.831,最佳截断值为75分。 结论 基于随机森林算法建立的预测模型预测性能最好,基于logistic回归建立的模型效果最差。基于随机森林算法构建的社区老年人认知衰弱评分表可用于社区老年人认知衰弱的筛查。

    Abstract:

    Objective To build risk prediction models for cognitive frailty in community older adults based on different machine learning algorithms, to find out the best model, so as to provide reference for evaluating and preventing cognitive frailty of elderly people in community. Methods A total of 1 105 elderly people who underwent physical examination in three community health service centers in Suzhou were randomly divided into 773 cases in training set and 332 cases in verification set.Based on the bivariate logistic regression analysis result of the training set, six kinds of cognitive frailness risk prediction models were constructed using six machine learning algorithms (logistic, Bernoulli naive Bayes, random forest, extreme gradient lifting, k-nearest neighbor and support vector machine), and evaluated and compared in the verification set.Then a scoring form of cognitive frailty of elderly people in community was constructed based on the optimal algorithm and verified. Results Bivariate logistic regression analysis of training set identified 13 risk factors, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the six models was 0.8240.889, the sensitivity was 0.721-0.849, the specificity was 0.7000.837, and the Yoden index was 0.498-0.674.Random forest model was the best model.The score range of cognitive frailty scoring form for the elderly built based on this model was 0-180 points, the area under the ROC curve of internal and external verification was 0.858 and 0.831, and the optimal cut-off value was 75 points. Conclusion The prediction model based on random forest algorithm has the best prediction performance, while the model based on logistic regression has the worst prediction performance.The establishment of community older adults cognitive frailty scoring form based on random forest algorithm is helpful for community health workers to identify the elderly at a high risk of cognitive frailty and provide evidence for screening and intervention of cognitive frailty.

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周闯,金学勤,郭正丽,马晓敏.不同机器学习算法的社区老年人认知衰弱风险预测模型比较[J].护理学杂志,2023,28(19):1-5+11

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  • 收稿日期:2023-05-11
  • 最后修改日期:2023-07-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-12-29