急性脑卒中患者肺部感染风险预测模型的构建及验证
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女,硕士,主任护师

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安徽省教育厅高校自然科学研究一般项目(KJ2020B009)


Construction and verification of a risk prediction model for pulmonary infection in patients with acute stroke
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    目的 构建急性脑卒中患者发生肺部感染的风险预测模型,为制订针对性的预防措施提供参考。方法 回顾性收集2020年7月至2021年12月440例(建模组)住院急性脑卒中患者临床资料,分析肺部感染现状及风险因素,构建风险预测模型。选择2022年1-5月188例(验证组)急性脑卒中患者对风险预测模型进行验证。结果 建模组急性脑卒中患者肺部感染发生率为23.18%,共分检出病原菌115株,其中革兰阴性菌、革兰阳性菌、真菌分别75株、33株、7株。美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表评分>15分、入院48 h首次血清C-反应蛋白及降钙素原增高、气管插管、留置胃管、口腔功能障碍、低蛋白血症是急性脑卒中患者发生肺部感染的风险因素(均P<0.05)。建模组和验证组入院后肺部感染发生风险的ROC曲线下面积分别为0.931和0.927(均P<0.05);模型验证结果显示,约登指数为0.721,灵敏度为90.9%,特异度为81.2%,准确率为93.6%。结论 急性脑卒中患者肺部感染发生率高,病原菌以革兰阴性菌为主。可根据预测模型中的风险因素尽早落实医院感染标准防控技术,降低肺部感染发生率。

    Abstract:

    Objective To construct a risk prediction model for pulmonary infection in acute stroke patients, so as to provide a reference for developing targeted preventive measures. Methods The clinical data of 440 (modeling group) inpatients with acute stroke from July 2020 to December 2021 were retrospectively collected, their occurrence of pulmonary infection and risk factors were analyzed, so as to construct a risk prediction model. Then the risk prediction model was verified by selecting 188 inpatients (verification group) of acute stroke from January to May 2022. Results The incidence of pulmonary infection in the modeling group was 23.18%, and a total of 115 strains of pathogenic bacteria were detected, consisting of 75, 33, and 7 gram-negative, gram-positive, and fungal strains, respectively.National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score >15, increased serum CRP and PCT within 48 hours, tracheal intubation, indwelling gastric tube, oral dysfunction, and low plasma albuminemia were risk factors of pulmonary infection in acute stroke inpatents (all P<0.05) . The area under the ROC curve for the risk of pulmonary infection after admission was 0.931 and 0.927 in the modeling group and the verification group (both P<0.05). The model verification result showed that, the Jorden index was 0.721, sensitivity was 90.9%, specificity was 81.2%, and accuracy was 93.6%. Conclusion The incidence of pulmonary infection in acute stroke inpatients is high, and the pathogenic bacteria are mainly gram-negative. Based on the risk factors in the prediction model, standard preventive prevention and control techniques for hospital-acquired infections can be implemented early to reduce the incidence of pulmonary infections.

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方萍,金平,霍佳佳,兰洋,张超,张章,许洋洋,姚远,陈明军,杨振时.急性脑卒中患者肺部感染风险预测模型的构建及验证[J].护理学杂志,2023,28(16):30-33

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  • 收稿日期:2023-03-22
  • 最后修改日期:2023-05-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-12-29