糖尿病足风险预测模型的构建与验证
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女,硕士在读,学生

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华中科技大学同济医学院护理学院2021年自主创新基金项目(2021-07)


Development and validation of a risk prediction model for diabetic foot
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    目的 构建2型糖尿病患者糖尿病足风险预测模型,为医护人员识别高危患者并制订针对性干预方案提供参考。 方法 回顾性收集2018年3月至2020年3月住院2型糖尿病患者的临床资料,使用LASSO回归和多因素logistic回归分析筛选糖尿病足发生的危险因素,建立2型糖尿病患者糖尿病足风险预测的列线图模型。计算C统计量评价模型的区分度,使用校准图和Brier分数评估模型的校准度。使用Bootstrap法进行内部验证,随后收集2020年4~12月住院2型糖尿病患者资料用于外部验证。 结果 开发数据集共纳入1 527例患者,有319例(20.89%)患糖尿病足。最终9个预测因子进入模型:文化程度、溃疡史或截肢史、视网膜病变、是否注射胰岛素、震动感觉阈值、足背动脉搏动、足部皮肤异常变化、足部真菌感染和足部畸形。预测模型内部验证前后的C统计量分别为0.966和0.963,Brier分数分别为0.052和0.054,校准图中实际曲线和理想曲线重合度较好。外部验证数据集共纳入451例患者,有71例(15.74%)患糖尿病足。模型外部验证的C统计量为0.928,Brier分数为0.051,校准图显示模型的预测结果和观察结果之间一致性较好。 结论 构建的2型糖尿病患者糖尿病足风险预测模型具有良好的区分度和校准度,可为临床筛查糖尿病足高危患者提供借鉴。

    Abstract:

    Objective To develop a risk prediction model for diabetic foot in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and to provide a reference for medical staff to identify high-risk patients and formulate targeted intervention programs. Methods Clinical information of patients with T2DM hospitalized from March 2018 to March 2020 were retrospectively collected for model development.The risk factors of diabetic foot were identified using LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression, then a predictive nomogram model was built based on these risk factors.The C-statistic was calculated to evaluate the discrimination of the mo-del, and the calibration plots and Brier scores were utilized to assess the calibration of the model.Internal validation was performed using the bootstrap method, and external validation was performed in another group of patients with T2DM hospitalized between April and December 2020. Results A total of 1,527 patients were included in the development data set, and 319 (20.89%) had diabetic foot ulcers.Nine predictors were eventually determined to be associated with diabetic foot:education level, history of prior ulcers or amputation, retinopathy, injection of insulin, vibration perception threshold, dorsalis pedis artery pulse, foot skin anomalies, fungal foot infections, and foot deformities.The C-statistic of the model was 0.966 without correction and 0. 963 after bootstrap correction.The Brier score was 0.052 and bootstrapping corrected Brier score was 0.054.The calibration plot showed good agreement of the nomogram between predicted and observed outcomes.A total of 451 patients were included in external validation data set, and 71(15.74%) suffered from diabetic foot disease.The C-statistic was 0.928, the Brier score was 0.051, and the calibration plot also showed good agreement between observed and predicted probabilities. Conclusion The nomogram prediction model has good discrimination and calibration, which can be used for screening of patients at high risk for diabetic foot.

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谢晓冉,徐蓉,张静,陶静,边旭娜,高莲莲,欧阳兰欣.糖尿病足风险预测模型的构建与验证[J].护理学杂志,2022,27(11):9-14

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  • 收稿日期:2021-12-20
  • 最后修改日期:2022-03-05
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-08-28