基于决策树构建胸痛患者院内心脏骤停早期预警模型
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女,硕士,副教授

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福建医科大学启航基金研究生创新项目(2020QH2016);福建卫生职业技术学院科研项目(2018-3-1)


Decision tree model for predicting in-hospital cardiac arrest among chest pain patients
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    摘要:

    目的 构建并验证基于决策树的胸痛患者院内心脏骤停早期预警模型。方法 收集以急性非创伤性胸痛为主诉就诊并进入抢救室治疗的患者3 146例,以其中发生心脏骤停的71例患者为病例组,选取同期未发生心脏骤停的142例患者为对照组,利用决策树构建心脏骤停早期预警模型,采用十折交叉进行验证,并与GRACE评分、TIMI评分和HEART评分比较模型的预测效能。结果 决策树共有3层,5个节点,舒张压、Killip分级、肌钙蛋白、胸痛持续时间和肌酸激酶是心脏骤停的预测指标。基于决策树构建的模型受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.893,显著高于TIMI评分(0.817)、HEART评分(0.801),差异有统计学意义(均P<0.05);高于GRACE评分(0.857),但差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论 基于决策树构建的胸痛患者院内心脏骤停早期预警模型对心脏骤停的预测准确性高、结果直观、逻辑清晰,可作为医护人员对胸痛患者风险管理的决策依据。

    Abstract:

    Objective To develop and validate a decision tree model to identify in-hospital cardiac arrest among chest pain patients at the emergency department. Methods Data of 3 146 patients who complained of nontraumatic acute chest pain and rescued in the emergency department were collected. Seventy-one patients experienced cardiac arrest were treated as the case group, and 142 patients without cardiac arrest were treated as the control group. Decision tree analysis was performed to determine the early warning system of cardiac arrest, and 10-fold cross validation was used to verify. Performance of the decision tree model was compared with the GRACE, TIMI and HEART scores. Results The decision tree included three layers and five nodes of diastolic blood pressure, Killip class, troponin I, duration of chest pain, and creatine kinase. The area under the ROC curve of the decision tree model was 0.893, which was significantly higher than TIMI score (0.817) and HEART score (0.801) (P<0.05 for both), and was also higher than GRACE score (0.857) but without significant difference (P>0.05). Conclusion The decision tree model with good accuracy, intuitive results, and clear logic in predicting cardiac arrest can be used as a decision-making reference for medical staff on risk management of chest pain.

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龚海蓉,吴婷婷,郑若菲,李红.基于决策树构建胸痛患者院内心脏骤停早期预警模型[J].护理学杂志,2021,36(14):23-28

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  • 收稿日期:2021-02-03
  • 最后修改日期:2021-03-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-09-16