不同危重症评分工具预测心脏外科术后再入ICU患者死亡风险的比较
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男,硕士,护师

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复旦大学复星护理科研基金项目(FNF201816)


Comparative study of different severity scoring systems on risk assessment of death in patients readmitted to ICU after cardiac surgery
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    摘要:

    目的 比较5种危重症评分工具对心脏外科术后再入ICU患者死亡风险的预测效果。 方法 选择184例心脏术后转出ICU后再入ICU患者,使用急性生理和慢性健康状况评分(APACHEⅡ)、欧洲心血管手术危险因素评分系统(EuroSCORE)、早期预警评分(EWS)、改良早期预警评分(MEWS)、早期预警评分结合乳酸评分(EWS-L)预测患者的死亡风险。使用Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验判断各评分的校准能力,采用ROC曲线下面积判断各评分工具区分死亡与否的能力。 结果 共30例患者发生院内死亡。EuroSCORE、APACHEⅡ、EWS、EWS-L预测死亡例数的95%CI包括全组实际死亡例数,表现出较高的校准度。拟合优度检验结果显示,5种评分工具预测死亡例数与实际死亡例数差异无统计学意义(均P>0.05),其中EWS-L评分的区分度最好(AUC=0.794),当EWS-L得分为6.45分时,约登指数为0.534,预测值最大。 结论 对心脏外科术后再入ICU患者,建议使用EWS-L评估患者死亡风险,并可通过死亡风险因素分析进一步改良现有的危重症评分工具,以提高其预测准确性。

    Abstract:

    Objective To compare the predictive effectiveness of five severity scoring systems on the risk assessment of death in patients readmitted to ICU after cardiac surgery. Methods A total of 184 cardiac surgery patients discharged from cardiac surgery ICU and then readmitted to ICU were selected, and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE Ⅱ), European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), Early Warning Score (EWS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and the Early Warning Score-Lactate (EWS-L) were used to assess their risk of death.Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was used to determine the calibration ability of each tool, and the area under ROC curve was utilized to determine their ability distinguishing death or not. Results Totally 30 patients died during hospitalization. EuroSCORE,APACHEⅡ,EWS and EWS-L had good calibration in predicting the number of death because the actual number of deaths was included in their 95% CI of the predicted deaths. According to the result of Hosmer-Lemeshow test, there were no statistical differences between the predicted and actual number of deaths (P>0.05 for all), and the discrimination ability of EWS-L was the best (AUC=0.794), when the value of EWS-L was 6.45, the Yuden index was 0.534, which achieved the best predictive performance. Conclusion It is recommended to use EWS-L assessing the risk of death for patients readmitted to ICU after cardiac surgery. And the predictive performance of existing assessment tools can be further improved through the studies of risk factor analysis for death.

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仲骏,丁紫微,张贤玲,郑吉莉.不同危重症评分工具预测心脏外科术后再入ICU患者死亡风险的比较[J].护理学杂志,2020,35(23):1-4

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  • 收稿日期:2020-07-14
  • 最后修改日期:2020-09-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-09-06