基于IScore评分的早期神经功能恶化预测模型的构建与评价
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女,硕士在读,学生

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广东省科技厅资助项目(2017A020215121);深圳市科技创新委员会科技计划资助项目(JCYJ20180228163026995);深圳市第二人民医院资助项目(20193357006)


Development and evaluation of IScore-based prediction model for early neurological deterioration
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    目的 探讨急性缺血性脑卒中患者早期神经功能恶化的危险因素,构建基于IScore评分的预测模型,并评价其预测效果。 方法 选取452例急性缺血性脑卒中患者的临床病例资料,根据是否发生早期神经功能恶化分为恶化组(n=73)和非恶化组(n=379),比较两组的危险因素,通过二分类Logistic回归模型建立预测模型,采用ROC曲线下面积评价模型的预测效果。 结果 早期神经功能恶化发生率为16.15%。最终进入预测模型的指标包括IScore评分、白细胞计数、大脑中动脉M1段中重度狭窄、颈动脉中重度狭窄共4个预测因子,模型ROC曲线下面积为0.790,特异度为0.834,灵敏度为0.635,准确度为0.798,约登指数为0.469。 结论 基于IScore评分的预测模型对急性缺血性脑卒中患者早期神经功能恶化具有较好的预测效能与可重复性。

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    Objective To explore the risk factors for early neurological deterioration (END) in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS), to develop a prediction model based on IScore, and to evaluate its predictive validity. Methods A total of 452 AIS patients were divided into an END group (n=73) and a non-END group (n=379).Risk factors for END between the two groups were compared. Predictive model was developed by binary logistic regression and the predictive validity of the model was tested using the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Results The incidence of END in this study was 16.15%.The predictive model included IScore score, white blood cell counts, moderate to severe stenosis of the middle cerebral artery M1,and moderate to severe stenosis of the carotid artery. The AUC was 0.790 with the specificity of 0.834,sensitivity of 0.635, accuracy of 0.798, and the Youden index of 0.469. Conclusion The prediction model based on IScore has good predictive power and repeatability for END in AIS patients.

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肖静怡,谢小华,王亚萍,路平,马家惠,潘璐,邓丽萍,杨洁.基于IScore评分的早期神经功能恶化预测模型的构建与评价[J].护理学杂志,2020,35(17):32-35

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  • 收稿日期:2020-04-11
  • 最后修改日期:2020-06-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-09-06