早产儿入院低体温危险因素及风险预测模型的构建
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女,本科,副主任护师

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2020年度江苏省妇幼健康科研项目(F202071);江苏省卫生健康委员会妇幼健康科研项目(F202307)


Construction of risk prediction model for hypothermia in hospitalized premature infants
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    摘要:

    目的 分析早产儿入院24 h内低体温发生的危险因素并构建风险预测模型,为临床制订干预措施预防早产儿入院低体温提供参考。方法 将307例早产儿随机按照7∶3比例分为训练集(215例)和验证集(92例)。分析早产儿入院低体温发生情况及影响因素,绘制列线图并评估其区分度和一致性。结果 307例早产儿中,209例(训练集146例,验证集63例)发生入院低体温,发生率68.08%。训练集logistic回归分析结果显示,低出生体质量、早期早产儿、出生5 min Apgar评分≤7分、并存新生儿呼吸窘迫综合征是早产儿发生入院低体温的独立危险因素。训练集ROC曲线下面积0.809(95%CI:0.744~0.875),校准曲线斜率接近1,且Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验χ2=8.761、P=0.363。验证集ROC曲线下面积0.844(95%CI:0.755~0.933),校准曲线斜率接近1,且Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验χ2=7.911、P=0.442。结论 早产儿入院低体温发生率较高,需重视低出生体质量、早期早产儿、出生5 min Apgar评分≤7分及并存新生儿呼吸窘迫综合征的高危早产儿,构建的风险预测模型显示出较好的预测性能,可采用预测模型早期识别早产儿入院低体温风险。

    Abstract:

    Objective To analyze the risk factors for hypothermia occurring within 24 hours of hospitalization in premature infants to construct a risk prediction model, and to provide a reference for clinical intervention measures to prevent hypothermia in hospita-lized premature infants. Methods A total of 307 premature infants were randomly divided into a training set (215 cases) and a validation set (92 cases) in a 7∶3 ratio. The occurrence of hypothermia (axillary temperature <36.5℃) in hospitalized premature infants and its influencing factors were analyzed, and a nomogram was developed to evaluate its discriminative ability and consistency. Results Among the 307 premature infants, 209 cases (146 in the training set and 63 in the validation set) experienced hypothermia upon hospitalization, resulting in an incidence rate of 68.08%. Logistic regression analysis in the training set revealed that low birth weight, early preterm birth, an Apgar score of ≤7 at 5 minutes, and the presence of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome were independent risk factors for hypothermia in hospitalized premature infants. The area under the ROC curve for the training set was 0.809 (95%CI:0.744-0.875), the calibration curve slope was close to 1, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed χ2=8.761, P=0.363. In the validation set, the area under the ROC curve was 0.844 (95%CI:0.755-0.933), with a calibration curve slope close to 1, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed χ2=7.911, P=0.442. Conclusion The incidence rate of hypothermia in hospitalized premature infants is relatively high. It is essential to pay attention to high-risk premature infants with low birth weight, early preterm birth, an Apgar score of ≤7 at 5 minutes, and concurrent neonatal respiratory distress syndrome. The constructed risk prediction model demonstrates good predictive performance and can be used to identify the risk of hypothermia in hospitalized premature infants at an early stage.

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丁卉,陈玉瑛,李眉,王伏东,蒋丽军,薛娟.早产儿入院低体温危险因素及风险预测模型的构建[J].护理学杂志,2024,39(24):7-10

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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-11
  • 最后修改日期:2024-09-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-23